On the face of it Trump is a horrible little man.And the decision by Robert Gordon University to remove his Doctorate (CH) and the Business ambassadorship from the Scottish government following swiftly on it's heels seemed not only reasonable but downright sane given his attacks on every race and segment. Banning him outright from the UK is a very different matter.
At first it seemed Trump running was a rich man's joke. But the more he was made a scapegoat by the media and main stream party's the more he became a lightening rid for the disaffected.
The US has always been lucky for their social make-up allowed that a small lower class could easily be marginilised and then jailed when the need arose. But now those outside the benefiting cohort has enfolded those that would fit in the middle of the middle class. Teachers who hold masters degrees cannot, on one salary, sent their kids to university. The same would be true for mid rank civil servants like police lieutenants. Now I'm not suggesting the nurses, teachers and cops are going to Trump in droves, no. But their condition and position economically makes Trump plausible, something that would be impossible 10-15 years ago.
The main stream parties are losing their lower levels. They've bought into a picture of the economy that we've not seen since the days of the Robber Barons. When a combination of government policy to open the west and the finding of gold in vast quantities allowed them to draw vast wealth to themselves. But destabilised society in the process.
Who needs to worry about Trump. Well, the grandees of the Republican party obviously. But I think the Democratic party needs to be profoundly fearful of him. Remember the lower end of democratic support are far worse off under Obama than they were under Bush 2, and that's really saying something.
In the coming weeks we'll see. Not so much the early ones, but he'll be close. Nope, it will be the days when a gaggle of States vote.
I wonder if a Poll was taken on social media like that of the Gallop for the mainstream media return the numbers you see in the NYT.
This is well worth a read
http://www.amazon.com/Capital-Twenty-First-Century-Thomas-Piketty/dp/1491534656
At first it seemed Trump running was a rich man's joke. But the more he was made a scapegoat by the media and main stream party's the more he became a lightening rid for the disaffected.
The US has always been lucky for their social make-up allowed that a small lower class could easily be marginilised and then jailed when the need arose. But now those outside the benefiting cohort has enfolded those that would fit in the middle of the middle class. Teachers who hold masters degrees cannot, on one salary, sent their kids to university. The same would be true for mid rank civil servants like police lieutenants. Now I'm not suggesting the nurses, teachers and cops are going to Trump in droves, no. But their condition and position economically makes Trump plausible, something that would be impossible 10-15 years ago.
The main stream parties are losing their lower levels. They've bought into a picture of the economy that we've not seen since the days of the Robber Barons. When a combination of government policy to open the west and the finding of gold in vast quantities allowed them to draw vast wealth to themselves. But destabilised society in the process.
Who needs to worry about Trump. Well, the grandees of the Republican party obviously. But I think the Democratic party needs to be profoundly fearful of him. Remember the lower end of democratic support are far worse off under Obama than they were under Bush 2, and that's really saying something.
In the coming weeks we'll see. Not so much the early ones, but he'll be close. Nope, it will be the days when a gaggle of States vote.
I wonder if a Poll was taken on social media like that of the Gallop for the mainstream media return the numbers you see in the NYT.
This is well worth a read
http://www.amazon.com/Capital-Twenty-First-Century-Thomas-Piketty/dp/1491534656
The last election cycle, many people were put off by Mitt Romney because of his wealth. Now these same people don't seem to care about Trump's wealth. Not quite sure I understand why he is so popular right now but I do agree that both parties should be fearful of it. In a few more weeks, we will get our say here in Iowa as the first in the nation to do so and then I can sit back in relative peace from the television ads and robo-phone calls until the rest of the states gets things decided out.
ReplyDeleteWhat will be downright amusing looking in will be if the super-delagates over-rule the floor. If that occurs you might see a split.
DeleteJust clarifying in my mind part of what you're saying here... are you placing nurses in an economic category that doesn't earn as much money? Just wondering since one of my kids is an RN and makes a good salary.
ReplyDeleteI'll just say Trump has surprised me (both good and bad) in many ways. This will be an interesting election year and I have no idea at this point how I will vote. It's too early. It would take an awful lot to make me vote for Hillary Clinton. I've never liked Clinton politics beginning with when they were in the governor's office in Arkansas. (and she worries me far more than he did)
Enough said. I'll zip my lips (hopefully) on the subject.
My point about the nurses et al has to do with being an economic unit. It would be unlikely a nurse could afford on their pay to generate enough spare income to lay aside to send their kids to nursing school. That's what I mean about their income. Yes they can survive on their income, but it would be a cold spot if that income was the only coming into a home.
DeleteWell...I'm not sure I agree with you on that point, but I guess it all depends on various factors.
DeleteAs for Trump - I would wager that part of his appeal is that he doesn't mince words. Many folks are sick of "political correctness" and Trump says some things that many folks want to hear, but most candidates are afraid to vocalize. Christie comes the closest, but even he (as a dyed in the wool politician) knows where he has to draw the line.
As Sage said... it would be nice to actually vote "for" someone. (rather than against another or just a lesser of the evils)
I think at core his appeal is a bit different. He's not mainstream, and that's the point. He doesn't need to be a vicious little thug to play, all he needs is to 'not be' of the establishment.
DeleteI am getting tired of voting for someone, not because I like them, but because I dislike the other options so much more... It doesn't appear that feeling is going to change this election with these yahoos running.
ReplyDeleteOh I know, that's one of the reasons I turn it into a thought experiment. You see I know that Trump isn't reflective of the USA, but that's the bloss being put on things in Europe and Asia's newspapers. They are truly scared of him. But I think, like with the FN in France a few weeks ago those in the middle ground of the Republican party will hold their nose and vote Democrat.
DeleteI've written and rewritten this 100 times... :)
ReplyDeleteI'll tell you, I'm afraid of him too.
And funnily enough, if he is elected based on his mouth and being a bully, he's still an extremely wealthy SOB who isn't going to change a thing policy-wise. He likes those policies just the way they are, thank you very much. And instead of bringing the country together, he has made hateful nasty things mainstream, things that we should be embarrassed about saying (and even thinking, if I'm being honest) in the 21st century. Robert Heinlein's words “You can sway a thousand men by appealing to their prejudices quicker than you can convince one man by logic.” ring true to me when I think of Trump. Prejudices and fears, actually.
Oh, and I don't think it's the teachers that he is appealing to, at least none that I know. I couldn't send a kid to college on my salary, but I know he (or his party) wouldn't do a thing to help me out with that.
A few months back when he was just getting started, there were a lot who theorized that he was running in order to push those moderates to Hillary. He was a Hillary supporter when she was in New York and when she ran in 2008, and gave loads of money to her campaign. It's all a game.
Oh I know he's not after teachers. I simply used teachers et al to illustrate just how far up the structure of society the issue travels. Remember society is a pyramid with the largest section at the bottom unemployed or at best under-employed. But how much further above you do you need to go to have a family with one earner and them to not just survive but inhabit comfortably.
DeleteBut it's the very large cohort on less money I'm speaking about. These are the people Trump speaks to. You see the thing is Bush 2 gave them a form of hope with the home ownership schemes but these were distorted (naturally enough) by those who saw the poverty industry as just that, an industry. These were the people that put Obama into office, who are now vastly worse off than in '08.
Internationally he isn't unusual. The government in Greece Portigal and Spain went Left, Right then a very odd concoction of stubborn. Ditto in the UK with Labours Corbyn, who is seen as coming from an old left that had actual beliefs. Not 'pragmatic realists' who are nothing but the far right dresses up nice.
But fear is at the core.
Was thinking about this again this morning and thought I would add some more.
ReplyDeleteThe one good thing about our primary/caucus system is that it is mostly attended by those who are more passionate about trying to get someone into the White House who can actually make good changes. I'm not convinced that most Trump supporters will fall into that category and thus I don't think he will do as well in the primary/caucus system as the national popularity polls indicate. Ron Paul was another one like Trump who always seemed to do well in the polls but never did well in the primaries/caucuses.
I think in the beginning, probably starting with New Hampshire, you will see Trump win a few states but as the bottom of the republican pack start dropping out of the race, there supporters will start supporting more establishment candidates and Trump will start trailing off the back of the pack. I predict it will probably end up being Cruz or Rubio who ultimately get the endorsement and despite signing a pledge not too, I predict Trump will try running as an Independent.
Those primary's tend to be a bit of a mystery to those not involved. But I think you'll see that even with the average delegate in their 50s Trump will be there or thereabouts on the floor. But that's not what makes him off. The bet the Superdelagate's will have to make is 'when' he runs as an independent will he draw sufficient numbers to him in the election such that he erases the cohesion of the party.
DeleteYou see I think the very best thing that could've happened to the Republicans was Ross Perrot. The only problem was they coud've done with being out of office for another 4. Then the arrogant so-and-so's that ballzed up Bush 2 that were higher in the ranks than when they hung about Bush 1 would've been out the gate. As it was they played out issues from the 1970s and 80s.
The primaries are quite simple. If you are a republican, you vote for your favorite republican candidate and if you are democrat, you vote for your favorite democrat candidate. A few states let you vote on either side if you aren't registered in one or the other parties. The caucus states are a bit more complex and I live in a caucus state. In our state, the republican caucus is run just like a primary in that registered republican voters vote for their favorite republican candidate. The democratic caucus is the more complex one. You essentially go into a large room and they have you stand in the corner of your favored candidate (or vote for is larger numbers are involved). The candidate getting the lowest votes is then kicked out and the people who voted for that person have to go stand in someone else's corner. This continues until only two candidates remain and then whomever gets the most voters on the final vote in the nominee. After the vote in both the democratic or republican caucus, we get together and vote on issues that we feel should be part of the nominees platform. Those issues are sent on to the state caucus meeting who narrows them down to just a few and send them onto the national convention meeting where ultimately the presidential nominee for the party is selected as well as the issues their party is most interested in is confirmed.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the explanation of the caucus system. I knew the basics, but it's good to hear it from someone who lives there.
DeleteArkansas is one of those states where we don't have to register by party, therefore we can vote whichever primary most interests us. That's good, but sometimes in presidential years I wish I could vote in both primaries! Often state and local races have important choices in the "other" party.
Ideally, I'd like to do away with a party system entirely. It'll never happen, though. Too much money involved.
Although not enjoyable at times, we are always going to have political parties. They are simply a way of classifying a mass of people with similar views and creating some organization. My hope is that someday a middle of the road political party becomes viable and can win some elections. In Iowa, you have to be registered with that party to participate in the caucus but you can register or switch your political affiliation at the time of the caucus so essentially it is like Arkansas but with a bit more paperwork involved. It really slows down the entire process because I have had to wait for a couple hours at times past the start time so that everyone can get registered and into the doors.
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